Who directed the cotton roller coaster?

From the crazy price increase in March of this year, the highest offer price was RMB 31,000 per ton, which fell to the current spot price of RMB 24,000 per ton. The cotton market price plummeted by more than two percent, which made cotton spinning companies and cotton growers unexpected.

Entangled cotton farmer Yan Fang (a pseudonym) is also treating a family in Jinan City. Just five days ago, under heavy pressure, she could not find a short sight. Fortunately, the family found it timely and is currently still being treated.

Yan Fang is a farmer in Yanzhuang Township, Dukou Town, Xiajin County. Last year, a total of 28 acres of cotton were planted. About 6,000 kilograms of cotton were placed at home. This was a year of rations and living expenses for their entire family, but they were not sold.

Yan Fang calculated that the land rent, fertilizer agricultural fees, and then counted labor costs, the investment per mu of about 1300 to 1400 yuan. According to the price of cotton at the moment, it would be nice to sell it and get back the capital. Together with the foreign debt owed, the expenses of the whole family for a year and a year, and the year of arrogance and arrogance for one year, the land is equal to the white species, and the heart is really in a raging fire. Yan Fang could not make it through.

At the end of last year, Yan Fang and his wife had decided to sell their cotton. The price was 7.2 yuan/kg. However, due to delays. Today, prices have almost dropped by nearly half.

In March of this year, Yan Fang's couple still did not have a unified opinion to sell cotton. After a few days of highs, the cotton price began to fall. They regret not having sold cotton in time. In a few days, the loss was 100,000 yuan.

Data show that since the beginning of this year, domestic cotton prices have inverted "V" shape market. The China Cotton Price Index (CC Index328) rose from 27,516 yuan/ton on January 4th to 29,308 yuan/ton on February 11th to 31,241 yuan/ton on March 8, after which it turned all the way down, April 2 The daily price was 29,852 yuan/ton. The price quoted per ton on April 21 and 27 was 28,886 yuan/ton and 27,976 yuan/ton, respectively; on May 10, it was 25,245 yuan/ton, and there was a low point during the year on May 30. It is 24,473 yuan/ton. On June 9, the price was still at 24,562 yuan/ton. The price fell by more than 6,600 yuan/ton in 3 months.

Almost every household in Xiajin County has cotton, and many people are not willing to sell because they are losing money. They are kept at home. Some people borrowed from banks or private loans expired. In order to hide their debts, they could not even go out.

The idea of ​​a cotton farmer is very simple, that is, when he hopes to farm, he will know how much money he can recover in the past, rather than what it is now. There is no sense of security.

Many farmers around Yantun and Ertun have gone out to start small businesses.

The halted cotton enterprise Xia Xingyang is the director of the Tianhong Cotton Processing Plant in Xiajin County, Shandong Province (hereinafter referred to as “Tianhong”), and his factory has stopped production for some days. Xiajin County, where Tianhong is located, is located in Dezhou, the main cotton producing area of ​​Shandong Province. The cotton production here is large and the cotton processing plants are concentrated. According to Xia Yangyang, the recent drop in cotton prices has forced more than 70% of local cotton processing plants to stop production.

Nearly 95% of the cotton processing plants in Xiajin County have cotton stocks, and as many as several thousand tons, at nearly 100 tons. They were initially worried that the price of cotton would continue to rise. They would buy a lot of seed cotton, process it into lint, exist in factories, and wait for a good price to sell. Today, new cotton has grown to a foot or more. The most worrying thing now is that new cotton will soon be listed. Will the inventory in the hands be valuable? There is no end in anyone's heart. This is also the most worrying thing for Xia Yang.

In Xia Xingyang’s view, companies that are affiliated with cotton have lost money under the current market conditions.

Rising and falling is not a good thing for companies and cotton farmers. “We are all confused now, we cannot see through the prospects and lose our judgment. We hope that the smoother the price, the better. Then the business can be done.” Xia Xingyang said.

In the province of Shandong, another main cotton producing area and cotton spinning base in Wucheng County, the number of companies that have recently stopped production and restricted production has gradually increased.

Wang Tonghai, general manager of Shandong Wucheng Nanyang Textile Co., Ltd., said that the price of cotton rose sharply and it was actually a manifestation of inflation control period. The skyrocketing of the previous period must have followed a plunge. Wang Tonghai aimed at Shandong Weiqiao Textile Group as the weather vane of Nanyang Company. They closely followed Weiqiao Textile's every move. Once Weiqiao had the price reduction information, Wang Tonghai let Nanyang Company to take the lead and immediately shipped, and this operation is currently in progress. It is very successful.

Wang Tonghai made his Nanyang company start shipping before and after the Spring Festival. When the cotton price was 30,000 yuan/ton high, he sold 90% of his stock, which was about 900 tons, becoming the lucky one in this big ups and downs.

Wang Tonghai said that in this round of skyrocketing plunge, cotton processing companies have lost more than 10 million yuan. He will no longer pick up cotton at the moment. He will take a car and take a car. No more error.

Yin Guangyu, an expert in the cotton industry and general manager of Shandong Wucheng Cotton and Cotton Group Corporation, stated that the main reason for the ups and downs of the cotton price is the transmission from the downstream to the upstream: there is no order in the garment and textile industry, no cotton yarn is required, and the demand for lint in the cotton yarn mill It will decrease, so that the cotton processing plant will stop production. If a cotton processing enterprise suspends production, it will not need cotton from farmers. In Wucheng County alone, cotton farmers have at least 20% of the total cotton output. Cotton farmers in the hands of cotton farmers before the end of May had certainly sold out. Another reason is that tightening monetary policy, continuously raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio to curb inflation, also causes companies to lack credit funds.

Yin Guangyu said that the 19,800 yuan/ton cotton protection price just introduced by the country is on the low side, because at present, what prices are rising, there are many subsidies for food household appliances, and the cotton subsidy policy appears to be a drop in the bucket. The minimum protection price is set at 22,000-23,000 yuan / ton is more reasonable. (According to "Economic Observer")